Clarity vs. Certainty
Making decisions can be tough, just as President of US Barack Obama acknowledged in a blog post recently.
Some choices are inconsequential/less consequential, like which jam to spread on our morning bread, but we also encounter choices where the situation is complex, the prospects are uncertain, and there are more things we don’t know than know.
An example can be considering various job offers. I encountered this recently and amid all the consternation and trepidation, I heard about the topic of seeking clarity over certainty.
What is clarity and what is certainty?
Clarity — we know exactly where we are now, but we do not know exactly where to go from here or every aspect of an outcome. However, we are curious to seek out other points of view to gain clarity and to discover facts along the way
Certainty — requires that we know the outcome and that we’ve figured out how any choice will impact the outcome before taking any action
Imperfect information and changing circumstances
Often we don’t have perfect information to know the entire picture and the expected outcome. For example, when we sign an employment contract, we can never be sure if the team culture is okay, the work is something that we enjoy etc.
The essence of VUCA and the nature of change reveal that we can never know all the factors of any endeavour. In fact, we discover some of the most important variables after we’ve moved forward with our effort.
I once read in a book this quote — “planning is guessing”. Although that is quite a sweeping statement to make, there is some truth in the argument where despite all the efforts, the answers can still only be taken at face value, and grinding on the last 10% of a decision to get all possible information could well be at the expense of time and possibly market advantage. Whereas clarity can provide some sense of focus with just enough information, without necessarily giving all the information and answers upfront.
Conclusion
Clarity is a state of mind. It is the result of an inquiry stemming from our curiosity that clears the mind. It allows us to know the next step, without having to know every aspect of the outcome. It starts with uncertainty but we quickly gain clarity along our journey of discovery.
To quote President Obama again, “in just a few short weeks on the job, I had already realized that because every tough decision came down to a probability, then certainty was an impossibility — which could leave me encumbered by the sense that I could never get it quite right. So rather than let myself get paralyzed in the quest for a perfect solution, or succumb to the temptation to just go with my gut every time, I created a sound decision-making process — one where I really listened to the experts, followed the facts, considered my goals and weighed all of that against my principles. Then, no matter how things turned out, I would at least know I had done my level best with the information in front of me.”
